Bitcoin was built on cryptography that seemed unbreakable. Now, quantum computers threaten to crack that code. The result: up to $470 billion in Bitcoin could be at risk.
The Growing Quantum Threat
Quantum computers are not like your laptop. They use qubits, which can process many possibilities at once. This power could solve the complex math that protects Bitcoin transactions.
A typical Bitcoin transaction takes about 10 minutes to verify. During that window, the public key is exposed in a public pool. If a quantum computer can crack that key, it could steal the coins.
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Bitcoin's security depends on the difficulty of reversing cryptographic operations using classical computers. Quantum machines running Shor's algorithm could potentially derive private keys from exposed public keys, making any coin that has ever been moved vulnerable. The 10-minute verification window where public keys are broadcast is a critical risk.
Coins that have never been spent - held in cold storage - remain safer because their public keys have never been revealed. A report from Deloitte stated that in such a scenario, the blockchain's security would be "fundamentally broken." A financial firm focused on cryptocurrencies, Galaxy Digital, assessed the amount of Bitcoin susceptible to such attacks and estimated it at $470 billion, or about 34% of all Bitcoin in circulation.
Not every Bitcoin is at risk, however. Only coins that have been spent at least once have a public key visible on the network. Galaxy Digital's analysis focused on those, accounting for roughly one-third of the total supply.
Industry Moves to Address the Risk
Not everyone is waiting around. Coinbase Global Inc., the largest US crypto exchange with a stock price of $165.64, set up an advisory board to study quantum impact. Strategy Inc., the firm led by Michael Saylor with a stock price of $99.12, holds more than $50 billion in Bitcoin. Saylor launched a program to address quantum-computing risks.
State-sponsored hackers from North Korea and Russia have already stolen billions in digital assets using conventional computers. Quantum computers could give them an even bigger weapon.
What Comes Next for Crypto
Developing a quantum-resistant system for Bitcoin is feasible, though it would be a costly, complex, and divisive process. It would demand global cooperation among developers to settle on a technical approach, and synchronizing millions of specialized machines for a future upgrade would be necessary.
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