Nobody building quantum computers agrees on when they will matter. On Wednesday, Amazon finally picked a number.
It said five to seven years, which puts it right in the middle of a wide debate.
Quantum is one of the hottest themes in tech right now. But useful machines are still years away, by every guess here.
Peter DeSantis leads Amazon's work on AI models, chips, and quantum tech. He told CNBC the first useful quantum machines should arrive in five to seven years.
After that, he expects them to grow like Moore's Law. That is the long-known rule that chips roughly double in power every two years.
It is the first time Amazon has given a date for this tech. That matters, since Amazon is one of the biggest firms building it.
Quantum has been a buzzword on Wall Street for years. Amazon had stayed quiet on timing until now.
The line between hype and a real shift is where the money is made, and we walk that line every morning in Market Briefs, which includes a free investing masterclass when you sign up.
Here is the part people get wrong. A quantum computer is not just a faster laptop.
A normal computer stores data as bits, which are each a 1 or a 0. A quantum computer uses qubits, which can be a 1, a 0, or both at once.
That lets it solve a special kind of problem that stumps normal machines. DeSantis says the first wins will come in chemistry and new materials.
Why should investors care? A useful quantum machine could speed up work on new drugs and clean energy.
Think of it as a tool for a few hard jobs, not an everyday computer. Most of us will never touch one.
Quantum is now a race among the biggest tech firms. Microsoft, Google, and IBM are all in, along with many startups.
The guesses are all over the map. A Google exec said last year the tech was about five years off.
Microsoft expects a working machine by 2029. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, went the other way.
He spooked quantum stocks last year by saying 15 years would be early. He later softened that line.
That is a huge spread, from five years to fifteen. It tells you how unsure the field still is.
Amazon's five-to-seven-year call sits near the hopeful end. Some stocks soar on any quantum news, then drop just as fast.
Amazon already has a quantum chip called Ocelot. It is built to fix the errors that make these machines fail.
So this is not all talk. But a timeline is a promise, not a product.
For now, no one has built a useful one. The gap between the hype and a working machine is the whole story.
The race is to get there first.
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