The USMCA was supposed to bring stability to North American trade. Instead, the United States has refused to lock it in for another 16 years. That leaves a decade of annual reviews - and plenty of room for more tariffs.
Trump soured on the deal he helped negotiate. He sees trade deficits as proof that other countries treat the US unfairly. Since the USMCA took effect, the US goods trade deficit with Mexico has grown 75%. The smaller deficit with Canada has tripled. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer explained Trump's frustration, saying the administration wants to change rules "in a way that enhances US content" and, on Canadian auto manufacturing, "We want to build here."
Mexico and Canada still hold 28% of total US merchandise trade, a share that has held steady since 2019. China's share has fallen to about 6%, down by more than half over the same period.
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In early 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, with exemptions for USMCA-qualifying products. That pushed about 90% of US imports from those countries to become compliant - up from about half. But the US Supreme Court struck down those tariffs as illegal in February 2026.
The administration quickly replaced them with a 10% flat tariff using a different temporary legal mechanism, again exempting USMCA-qualifying goods. Those tariffs expire on July 24. On top of that, a 50% tariff on foreign steel and aluminum hit Mexico and Canada hard, justified on national-security grounds.
Tom Halverson, CEO of CoBank, pointed to one bright spot: US farm exports to Mexico and Canada have grown about 600% since Nafta began. "The long-term future for US agriculture can be defined as exports, exports and more exports," he said. The US Chamber of Commerce estimates the USMCA supports 13 million American jobs and saves the average US family $700 a year.
But the relationship with Canada is strained. Prime Minister Mark Carney has suggested a "fortress North America" plan to boost US access to Canadian oil and minerals. "Let's be absolutely clear, Canada Strong will help make America great again," he said during a speech to the New York Economic Club.
The US is holding separate talks with Mexico and Canada. The US-Mexico talks are more advanced. Mexico wants to keep tariff-free access and investment certainty. The US wants rules that increase American content in trade.
The three countries will start annual reviews with the clock ticking on a 10-year deal. The US has already signaled it wants deeper changes, while Mexico and Canada are trying to hold on to what they have. The separate talks could produce a new framework - or more friction.
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