On July 1, 2026 - the six-year anniversary of the USMCA's start - U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced the administration would not extend the agreement for another 16 years. If no new terms are reached by 2036, the pact expires.
"We are not prepared to rubber stamp the agreement," Greer said. "We think there are substantial issues."
The administration believes the deal protects too much trade from tariffs President Trump wanted to impose. It also does not fix what the White House sees as trade deficits with Mexico and Canada. Greer pointed to mixed signals from Canada, saying, "One day they'll say, 'We want to help America reindustrialize. We want to help make America great again.' " He added, "Then the next day they'll talk about bringing in Chinese investment. So we get mixed messages from Canada."
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The potential disruptions and broad economic impact are stark. The agreement has stimulated economic growth across the region, whose combined GDP accounts for nearly one-third of the global total.
With the annual review mechanism, the countries have a decade to negotiate new terms.
"We have these ongoing negotiations and we don't know exactly when they will end, and there's no short- or medium-term forcing function for those negotiations to end," "said Patrick Childress, co-lead for Holland & Knight's USMCA team". "So that creates, of course, some uncertainty for companies."
Recent months have seen the U.S. hold formal discussions with Mexico, while largely excluding Canada from these talks. President Trump and Prime Minister Mark Carney have been at odds, with Carney aiming to lessen Canada's reliance on American trade. Adding complexity is China's increasingly aggressive trade stance.
Key sticking points within the USMCA involve a demand for a minimum share of U.S.-made auto parts and stricter rules of origin for vehicles, driven by worries about Chinese components being rerouted through North America. Another major issue is how much Chinese investment is acceptable and whether Mexico and Canada will fully back U.S. national security concerns regarding such investment.
Lobbying groups including the US Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable have pushed for governments to strengthen and retain the agreement. In May, associations representing most of the North American auto market wrote to Greer, urging the administration to strengthen and extend the deal. In June, the US Chamber of Commerce brought over 70 business partners to Capitol Hill, pressing lawmakers to "support maintaining the framework, press for full compliance from all three governments and encourage an expeditious and orderly review that delivers certainty for businesses."
"Supply chains are built with 30-year visibility, not five, and uncertainty could dissuade investment and growth," Madeline Chalecki, assistant director of the Atlantic Council's GeoEconomics Center, wrote in an online post this week.
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