United lowered its profit view on Tuesday, projecting adjusted earnings of 50 cents to $1.50 a share for the fourth quarter, short of analysts' $1.76 estimate. If results land at the high end, the company said 2026 adjusted earnings would not exceed $7.22 per share.
Back in mid-July, United had told investors it expected between $9 and $11 per share for the full year.
Management is planning for average jet fuel of $4.80 a gallon in the fourth quarter after $3.90 in the third. This year's jump in fuel prices has added billions to airlines' costs, squeezing profits even with solid demand, and contributing to higher ticket prices.
In the quarter that ended Sept. 30, United reported adjusted EPS of $2.54 versus $2.57 expected by LSEG, on revenue of $17.88 billion versus $17.9 billion expected. Revenue increased 17.4% from a year earlier, reaching $17.88 billion versus $15.23 billion a year ago.
Net income was up 8.5% year over year, reaching $1.03 billion, equal to $3.14 a share, compared with $949 million, or $2.90 a share, a year earlier. Adjusted for one-time items, net income was $833 million, or $2.54 a share.
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Demand stayed firm. Domestic passenger unit revenue climbed 14.5% and international unit revenue rose 17.4% from a year earlier, with passenger counts more than 2% above last year. "Our employees met the challenge of our ever-changing environment and our results prove the resilience of focusing on building a brand-loyal airline for customers," United CEO Scott Kirby stated in the company's earnings release.
Fuel is the headwind, but pricing and traffic are still doing work. The gap between robust unit revenue gains and a sharply higher fuel bill will drive margins into Q4. Watch how close results come to the 50 cents to $1.50 EPS guide and whether fuel tracks the planned $4.80 a gallon - those are the levers on United's near-term earnings path.
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