High-end purchases kept coming, but at a slower clip. Knight Frank counted 86 closings at $10 million or more in the quarter, versus 103 in the same stretch last year. For added context, the third quarter of 2024 had 83 such sales.
Big-ticket trades were still happening at the very top. Thirteen homes changed hands for at least $25 million, adding up to about $500 million in deals.
Average home values have eased. JLL pegs the citywide drop near 5% from a year ago, with sharper falls in select prime areas. Knight Frank estimates Palm Jumeirah is down 9% over 12 months.
"Buyer interest here continues to largely stem from those seeking a permanent or holiday home, rather than buy-to-flip investors." Palm Jumeirah and Emirates Hills remain the main hubs for the city's luxury sales.
When luxury markets can shift, it's helpful to get clear daily context, so sign up for the free Market Briefs
The market is absorbing geopolitical shocks. Earlier this year, Dubai faced a volley of Iranian missiles and drones, most of which were intercepted, and related strains have shown up in tourism, aviation and trade. Even so, September saw most expats return after the summer break, helping support demand.
He added that the "stop-start" nature of the conflict is a clear headwind and called the ongoing regional strife "the biggest drag at the moment on overall market activity."
From January through September, Dubai registered 412 sales of $10 million or more, close to last year's record 500 for the full year, and the first nine months totaled about $6.7 billion in that bracket. The pullback follows a record-setting 2025 and a surge that lifted citywide prices by more than 70% after the pandemic. In plain English: high-end demand is holding up even as prices in some prime spots soften and the regional outlook remains the swing factor.
To follow high-end real estate trends without feeling overwhelmed, subscribe to the free Market Briefs newsletter for short daily updates
