Why Oslo, and why now
Zelenskyy traveled to Oslo for new peace discussions with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finland's President Alexander Stubb, after speaking Sunday by video with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about the war and potential talks. Witkoff arrived Tuesday, while Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, will dial in, Norway's government said.
Støre said Zelenskyy "asked for this meeting with us to summarize where the situation now stands, and also facilitate for him to have a meeting with the American negotiators," referring to himself and Stubb. He added the Nordic leaders have "no assignments from other European countries." In a Sunday interview, Zelenskyy also said the American side planned to meet with Vladimir Putin.
The US angle: pressure and politics
Washington has been pressing Kyiv to consider concessions to reach a deal with Russia, even as Zelenskyy's relationship with Donald Trump has deteriorated. On Monday, Trump said Zelenskyy "doesn't know what he's talking about" and should have settled the war long ago, adding, "We've given a lot to Ukraine. They've given us nothing." He also suggested someone other than Zelenskyy should lead Ukraine's negotiations and said Russia had not been very active in Ukraine.
Tensions escalated after the US this month announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin for diesel deliveries to American and global markets, part of the White House effort to ease surging fuel prices before the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Trump then deferred sweeping new sanctions on Russian energy sales, drawing criticism from lawmakers, including Republicans, who argued the move helps Moscow finance the war launched in February 2022.
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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told Bloomberg that Putin aims not only to defeat Ukraine but also to undermine European democracy, calling Ukraine's territorial integrity the key condition "and that is not to dispute." He added, "I'm trying to convince Donald Trump each time I'm meeting him that this should be in his own interest."
Security signals: early warning and satellites
Kyiv officials suspect the US has been sharing attack alerts inconsistently, a claim US officials reject. The concern grew after a Russian strike using 16 ballistic missiles overnight Sunday into Monday - the third time in a week that Ukraine lacked its usual US early warning about incoming fire.
On Tuesday, Zelenskyy said he had "constructive" discussions with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that covered interceptors for ballistic missiles, early-warning of attacks, and the status of Starshield - "which needs to be restored." They agreed to reconnect soon for an update. US officials have pushed back on any suggestion of reduced intelligence, and Trump last week said he did not order limits on Ukraine's access to Starshield.
What it could mean for your portfolio
These talks gather two Nordic leaders who border Russia and coordinate closely on Ukraine, plus US envoys, while avoiding open confrontation with the Trump administration - a setup that could shape the pace of any diplomatic move. Watch three variables: whether negotiations gain traction, how US intelligence and defense support are calibrated, and the path of energy policy from diesel flows to sanctions. Each feeds into war risk, European stability, and fuel prices - and by extension, exposure to energy, defense, and European assets.
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