Paris short-term rentals hit by cancellations and slower demand after mid-October unrest

Booking trends after the riots

Unrest that escalated into vandalism and looting in mid-October has cooled demand for Paris stays. Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA, said that in the week following Oct. 17, reservations across Airbnb, Booking.com and Vrbo were down 18% versus a year earlier, and the next week showed a comparable year-over-year decline. He also noted that cancellations piled up, with nearly one in three stays scrapped for the week that began Oct. 19.

Agence Butler, which manages as many as 150 rentals a month, is seeing the pullback firsthand. Chief Marketing Officer Louis Carrel-Billiard said new bookings have been cut in half since Oct. 17 and spur-of-the-moment reservations have fallen by about 75%. The firm logged seven no-shows after the riots where guests did not seek refunds. "More than cancellations, the lack of new bookings remains the major issue," he said.

How hosts, concierges and hotels are reacting

Price cuts are one lever. Get a Key, a concierge service that lists only on Airbnb, has reduced nightly rates by as much as 50% in some instances this month to stimulate demand, according to founder and CEO Leonard de Taillandier. He called the business "a rollercoaster," pointing to September's bump from Celine Dion concerts and the Pope's visit, then the comedown when riots hit.

Hotels are feeling it too. Christophe Laure, who leads the UMIH Prestige hospitality group, said top-end properties faced roughly a 20% cancellation rate in the last week of October and that late bookings were running 60% below normal, adding that November and December appear "very quiet."

Market disruptions can reveal opportunity for investors who adapt their toolkit. We're hosting our first ever investor livestream on 11/17 to show you how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro, hosted by Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh. Save your seat.

The backdrop: protests and closures

Student and public-sector workers began demonstrating in September over funding and living costs, and by mid-October some protests turned into attacks on public buildings and looting, including in central Paris. On Oct. 24, authorities ordered the Louvre to close, upending plans for many visitors, though that day's protests were generally calmer in Paris and elsewhere. More nationwide demonstrations are slated for Nov. 5.

In the meantime, many stores have stayed open behind protective boarding, giving usually polished shopping streets a guarded look. Other European cities have also dealt with recent unrest, including Milan, Frankfurt and Cologne.

What this could mean for your portfolio

For operators, the revenue picture is softening. Agence Butler, which gets 75% of its sales via Airbnb, has also seen rates come down, and Carrel-Billiard said November occupancy could sink to about 35% if trends hold, which would be roughly half of last year's level. Airbnb's Chief Financial Officer Ellie Mertz said that following the Olympics, Paris ranked as the company's largest city in 2024 by nights and listings, underscoring the city's weight in the platform's network. Airbnb did not immediately provide a comment.

If you own hospitality or short-let exposure tied to Paris, watch the mix of year-over-year booking declines, elevated cancellations and discounting. Those are the inputs that will flow through to occupancy and revenue over the next few weeks.

Watching shifts in local demand helps investors sharpen their long term perspective. On 11/17, our CEO Jaspreet Singh goes live for our first ever investor livestream on how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro. Register to join him.