China's solar heavyweights rack up big losses, but margin hints turn less grim

Big losses, small bright spots

Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Jinko Solar Co., Trina Solar Co. and Tongwei Co. collectively posted 4.63 billion yuan in net losses, or $697 million, based on Friday filings, underscoring a third consecutive year of industry stress.

Longi booked a 1.1 billion yuan loss for the quarter. The company also said Friday that the deficit was smaller than in the prior quarter as newer, higher-spec panels lifted profitability.

What analysts are saying

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Chia Chen said Longi's 1.1 billion-yuan quarterly loss "suggests a long road to recovery amid a downturn driven by persistently low solar panel prices and contracting domestic demand," adding that "Heavy overcapacity in China's solar industry continues to weigh on the outlook and a significant rebound is unlikely before late 2027."

Citi Research called the quarter-on-quarter margin improvement a sign that efforts to rein in the supply glut are starting to show up in results. Analysts including Air Ma wrote Monday that Longi's better margins are an encouraging data point for a broader rebound, supported by sectorwide anti-involution steps to coordinate output and dial back price wars.

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Inventories, demand and the outlook

Polysilicon inventories climbed to a record 600,000 tons in August, which BloombergNEF says could supply more than half a year of global wafer production.

Demand is soft at home and overseas, complicating any profitability comeback. China's solar additions dropped 54% in the first nine months versus a year earlier, according to the National Energy Administration. For 2026, BloombergNEF lowered its projection for installations to 585 gigawatts, down from 624 gigawatts, and now sees 2027 coming in below previous expectations. Its third quarter supply chain report noted that "Chinese solar manufacturers are trying to rebuild margins, but weak demand is limiting price increases even after Chinese authorities tightened regulations on solar production."

What this means for your portfolio

The setup is classic late-cycle: losses still sizable, margins nudging up, and inventories towering. For investors tracking China solar exposure or upstream materials like polysilicon, watch the pace of capacity curbs, panel mix shifts toward advanced products, and whether installation forecasts stabilize.

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