Israel's central bank chief is keeping his options open.
"Our next meeting, which is in about two weeks, will be a live one," Yaron said.
That follows a July meeting where the bank cut its benchmark rate for the second straight time. After that, Yaron had said continued declines in inflation expectations could make further cuts possible. Now he is sounding more cautious.
The reason for the shift is simple: uncertainty has gone up since the last meeting. Yaron said policymakers have to consider labor-market conditions, inflation, geopolitical risks, and fiscal risks all at once.
"All of these considerations will be brought to the table in the next meeting," he said.
The inflation picture is actually improving.
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Economic growth is holding up too. Yaron called second-quarter growth "very strong," and he pointed to credit-card spending and venture-capital inflows as signs the economy stayed resilient during the Iran war.
So why the hesitation? Because the easy part of the decision is the inflation data. The harder part is everything else.
The shekel has been strong, which is good for consumers but painful for technology exporters selling their products abroad. Those exporters have been pushing for rate cuts to take the pressure off the economy. A lower rate typically weakens the currency, which makes exports cheaper on the global market.
But Yaron is not giving in to political pressure. He has a longer list of worries, and the biggest one is what happens after the October elections.
Here is the challenge Yaron keeps coming back to: the next government will need to reduce the debt, manage defense spending, and invest in growth. All at the same time.
He calls it a "fiscal trilemma" - a three-way puzzle where solving one piece makes the other two harder.
"The big fiscal challenge is managing what I call the fiscal trilemma," Yaron said.
"Managing these three is going to be difficult."
That matters for the rate decision because fiscal policy and monetary policy are connected. If the government borrows heavily to fund defense and growth, that can push inflation up. If the central bank cuts rates too quickly, that can make the debt problem worse.
For investors focused on Israel, the next two weeks are genuinely uncertain. The inflation data is cooperating, but the political calendar and the fiscal math are not. A cut is possible.
A hold is possible. Yaron is deliberately keeping both doors open.
What happens after October matters just as much as what happens at the next meeting. The new government's approach to debt and defense spending will affect how much room the central bank has to keep cutting. For now, the smart approach is to watch the data and wait.
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