Everyone knows what a stock exchange does. It trades stocks.
But Hong Kong's exchange is betting its next big chapter on everything else. Analysts say the company's push into bonds and foreign exchange could finally give its shares a jolt, especially since strong trading volumes and a steady stream of new listings have not moved the stock.
The earnings report lands Wednesday, and the spotlight is on the newer businesses. The company has spent years building them out, and the market is about to see if the bet is working.
Here is the puzzle. HKEX runs one of the busiest stock exchanges in Asia. Trading is strong.
Companies keep listing.
Some investors have stayed away because of worries about how Beijing regulates cross-border investment flows and vets new listings. Those concerns have kept a lid on the stock even as the core business hums along.
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The company has been here before. In 2012 it bought the London Metal Exchange, a big bet that took it beyond its stock-trading roots. Now it is going after bonds and foreign exchange.
On Aug. 3, HKEX launched offshore government bond futures for China. The product lets global investors bet on Chinese government bonds, and it supports Beijing's push to internationalize the yuan. Trading has cooled since the launch, but the market is building. Open interest in September five-year government bond futures has more than doubled since the product hit the market.
"Fixed-income related revenues are expected to become a new growth curve for HKEX, helping diversify its income streams and cushion the impact of market cycles on earnings," said Li Yue, vice president at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China International.
Thomas Wang, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Group, called bonds and foreign exchange "the next structural growth engine" for the company. He noted that offshore government bond futures offer tighter bid-ask spreads and better capital efficiency.
The company is also working with the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, or CFETS, on an electronic platform for fixed-income and currency trading. Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, said the platform will be key to HKEX's role in yuan internationalization.
"The bond futures extended HKEX's product matrix and will help it span business to onshore rates and FX," Xing said.
For everyday investors, an exchange's internal strategy can feel distant. But this is a window into something bigger: how global money moves in and out of the world's second-largest economy.
If the bond and currency push works, HKEX becomes less dependent on the ups and downs of stock trading. That could mean steadier earnings and, eventually, a stock that stops lagging the market.
If it does not, the shares could keep going sideways. Either way, Wednesday's report will offer the first real look at whether the plan is working.
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