Energy chiefs tell firms to plan for permanent disruption

Big picture from Adipec

At the Middle East's largest industry gathering in Abu Dhabi, energy leaders said companies should assume turmoil is part of the operating model. Their shortlist: hold backup capacity, use multiple supply pathways, and tilt investment toward security of supply.

Alessandro Puliti of Saipem put a point on it: "Disruption is no more the black swan." He said logistics snags that rarely reached a CEO's desk are now the main worry.

Where the pressure is coming from

Executives tied the recent strain to the US-Iran war, describing vessels stuck outside ports and the scramble to find alternative suppliers for critical equipment. They said the push to secure supply is increasingly driving energy infrastructure spending.

Baker Hughes chief Lorenzo Simonelli argued the fix is a bigger, broader energy system, including more inventories to cushion future shocks. Looking to 2027 and 2028, he foresees additional hurdles - among them rising energy demand from artificial intelligence - and noted the system must toughen up, cover every energy source, and lean more on regional resources. "We are going to need not just in time, but just in case," he said.

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He also urged companies and governments to stay focused after the immediate strain fades. "Let's not forget, and let's use the crisis," he said.

How companies are responding

According to Simonelli, Baker Hughes runs ongoing checks for vulnerabilities in its supply chain and secures backup vendors to sidestep bottlenecks. It has also delegated greater decision-making power to regional groups and has recognized staff who took action amid the upheaval. "Sometimes the worst thing you can do is not make a decision," he said.

Fatema Al Nuaimi, who leads Adnoc's natural gas division, said scenario planning by itself will not cover every crisis and stressed the need to invest. "The future is for those who are not just predicting every possible scenario," she said. "It's for those who build within their system enough flexibility that enables them to mitigate whatever situations they are faced with."

Why it matters for your portfolio

Follow the capex shift. Executives signaled more spending on security of supply, added inventories, and a larger, more resilient system that uses all energy sources and leans more on regional resources. With leaders highlighting continued challenges into 2027 and 2028, including AI-driven demand, watch for companies that disclose ongoing supply chain testing, alternative sourcing, and clear decision frameworks around disruption readiness.

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