Oil prices are climbing because of the Iran war. Mortgage rates are climbing with them. And spring homebuyers are staying on the couch.
At 6.38%, the weekly mortgage rate hasn't been this high since last fall. On certain days last week, it crossed 6.6%.
Across the country, the median monthly mortgage payment landed at $2,742 - a 0.4% increase from last year. It's not a huge jump, but it's the first increase since October.
Home prices aren't helping either. The median sale price grew 2.1% over the four weeks through March 29 - the fastest pace of growth in 12 months.
Fewer people are making offers. Pending sales fell 1.2% from last year.
Applications for new home loans dropped 3% in a single week. The average home now takes 53 days to find a buyer, up from 48 a year ago.
Even as demand shrinks, new listings grew 1.7% compared to last year.
That's pushed the gap between people listing homes and people buying them to 630,000. Redfin has tracked this number for over a decade. It's never been this lopsided.
Think of it like a farmer's market where more vendors keep showing up, but fewer shoppers walk through. The sellers who don't stand out go home empty-handed.
Redfin agents say staging and repairs matter more now than they have in years. Buyers who do show up are picky - some are walking out after inspections turn up problems.
Oil prices are the swing factor. If the Iran conflict drags on, rates could keep rising - and that 630,000-seller surplus could widen heading into summer.
Detroit is a bright spot for sellers right now, with prices up over 10% year over year. San Francisco led all major metros at close to 13%.
Spring is here, buyers are sitting on the sideline.
