Southeast Asia is having two very different quarters.
Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia are holding up - some are even growing earnings - while the Philippines and Thailand are getting crushed.
The split comes down to one thing: who imports oil and who doesn't.
The Oil Import Problem
About 9 in 10 barrels the Philippines imports come from the Middle East, and Thailand isn't far behind at 60%.
With the Strait of Hormuz closed off by the Iran war, both countries are paying up for energy with nowhere else to turn.
Analysts have cut Q2 net income estimates on roughly 80% of the Philippine Stock Exchange Index, per Bloomberg Intelligence - and no other major Southeast Asian market is anywhere close.
Total Philippine earnings are now on track to fall 20% this quarter, the steepest drop the country has seen since 2022, with the property sector facing significant headwinds as buyers push back big-ticket purchases.
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Airlines Without A Hedge
Airlines are getting hit hardest, with airspace closures cancelling flights and carriers that didn't lock in fuel costs ahead of time eating the difference.
Thai Airways and PAL Holdings - Philippine Airlines' parent - are among the most exposed in the region.
Singapore Airlines and Cathay Pacific are among the most-hedged carriers in Asia, leaving them in a much better spot now.
Who's Pulling Ahead
For commodity exporters, the story flips.
Indonesia's currency weakness is partly offset by support from commodity exports and resilient domestic demand, which keeps the pressure in check.
Vietnam posted 28% earnings growth in Q1, while Malaysia's petrochemical sector is heading into what Maybank calls a "surge into profitability" as selling prices climb.
Gloves, plantations, and raw materials are all riding supportive pricing trends.
What To Watch
Even if a Hormuz deal lands soon, oil isn't expected to come back to pre-war pricing for the rest of the year, according to Eurobank - shipping volumes and production take time to spin back up.
For Q3, the sectors at most risk are the ones already feeling it: consumer industries, transport, and banks in oil-importing markets. Thailand itself is now pegged for a 13% earnings contraction in Q3, the steepest in the region.
The dividing line in Southeast Asia is who sells oil and who buys it.
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