Yet economists do not expect the RBI to raise interest rates next month.
The consumer price index, or CPI, is a measure of how fast the prices of everyday goods are rising. In May, inflation was 3.93%.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a median of 4.20% for June. The actual result was higher than expected.
Food prices are the main culprit.
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State-owned fuel retailers have recently raised prices, keeping retail fuel costs high. Renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, following a short-lived ceasefire, have rekindled worries about shipments via the Strait of Hormuz - a vital route for global oil - driving crude oil near $80 per barrel on Monday. Inflation also faces a threat from weather patterns. India's southwest monsoon, responsible for roughly 70% of yearly precipitation, has been patchy, although the overall rainfall shortfall has declined from about 40% at June's end to approximately 18% by July 12.
The central bank left that rate unchanged at its last meeting. In its most recent forecast, the central bank's projection for the fiscal year through March sees inflation at 5.1%.
India's 10-year bond yield rose 2 basis points to 6.73% and remained largely steady following the inflation data.
RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank would act only if inflation becomes more widespread, and would keep watching oil market trends and monsoon progress.
"While the material easing in crude oil prices has reduced the likelihood of an early rate hike, the renewal of tensions in West Asia warrants some caution," "said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA Ltd. She expects the RBI to" 'maintain status quo' when the monetary policy committee meets in August.
The RBI's monetary policy committee operates under an inflation-targeting framework adopted in 2016, with a medium-term goal of 4% CPI inflation within a 2-6% tolerance band. June's 4.38% reading remains inside that band, giving policymakers room to prioritize growth. However, persistent food and fuel pressures, along with an uneven monsoon, could push inflation higher in the coming months, complicating the balance between supporting economic recovery and containing price rises. With the central bank projecting 5.1% inflation for the full fiscal year, and the current policy rate left unchanged at 5.25%, most economists expect no move at the August meeting.
The 10-year bond yield edged up just 2 basis points to 6.73%, reflecting a muted reaction to the data. "We continue to expect inflation to rise further over the coming months," said lead economist at Oxford Economics, Alexandra Hermann Prasad. The outlook remains uncertain as the RBI monitors oil markets and monsoon progress for any signs of broader price pressures.
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