Boeing hasn't landed a major order from a Chinese airline in nearly a decade. Airbus has rung up about $55 billion worth in the meantime.
That gap is the backdrop for Trump's trip to China next week, and it explains why Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg is going with him.
Two sources told CNBC that Ortberg will join President Trump's planned May 14-15 visit to Beijing, where Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser is also expected to be on the list. Both companies have business in China that's now tangled up in the Trump-Xi summit.
Boeing (BA +0.10%) said on its earnings call last month that China is preparing to place an order for what Ortberg called a "big number" of planes. Bloomberg reported in March that the order could reach 500 of Boeing's 737 Max jets.
Ortberg has been blunt about what gets the deal across the line, saying any new agreement is "100% dependent" on the state of U.S.-China relations and the result of the summit.
Last week, China Southern Airlines agreed to buy 137 Airbus A320 jets at a list price of $21.4 billion, just one deal in a longer run.
Since 2025, Chinese airlines have signed Airbus orders worth about $55 billion at list prices, according to a Shanghai Stock Exchange filing. Airlines almost always pay less than list, but the direction is clear.
For Boeing, the pause was less of a choice than a consequence. China was the first country to ground the 737 Max after the second crash in 2019, only lifting the grounding in late 2021 - about a year after the U.S. did.
The company has slowly resumed deliveries since, but it hasn't won back a flagship order.
The Beijing trip was originally planned for late March or early April, but Trump said he pushed it back at the U.S.'s request because of the Iran war, which started Feb. 28.
China is the world's largest buyer of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf, where energy flows have slowed sharply with the Strait of Hormuz choked off. That has put fresh pressure on the Trump-Xi relationship and raised the chance the trip gets delayed again or scrapped.
Citigroup (C +1.56%) doesn't run consumer banking in China, but it has been on the ground there since 1902.
Fraser told Bloomberg in November that the firm is seeing fresh investor interest in the country, and a presidential visit gives her a new reason to be in the room.
If a Boeing order is unveiled during the trip, it would be the first major Chinese commitment to the planemaker in years and a clear signal on where U.S.-China trade policy is heading.
If the trip slips again, that signal goes the other way.