China's economy lost more steam in July, and this time the slowdown touched everything at once - what people buy, what companies build, and what factories make.
The figures were released at 3 p.m., a departure from the customary 10 a.m. schedule. The numbers made clear why Beijing might have wanted to delay the bad news.
Chinese shoppers pulled back hard in July.
Goldman Sachs found nominal retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% in the first half from 5% a year earlier. A trade-in subsidy program that once boosted spending has now become a drag on the numbers.
Consumer prices tell the same story. July inflation hit a six-month low of 0.5%, while core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.9%.
Statistics bureau spokesperson Wang Guanhua pointed to lower global crude oil prices as one factor. Weak demand is doing its part too.
The building boom that powered China's rise is now dragging it down.
When economic headlines turn gloomy, secure your own future with the free Always Be Buying eBook.
Economists expected a 6% drop, and the decline steepened from the 5.7% slide in the first half. Real estate is the weak spot, with property investment tumbling 19.2% in the first seven months.
Urban investment fell 3.8% last year, the first annual decline in decades. Infrastructure investment contracted 3.6%, while manufacturing investment fell 1.7% in the same period.
The one bright spot is high-tech investment, which grew 5% in the first seven months. But that sector remains too small to carry the broader economy, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index unexpectedly contracted in July for the first time since February.
Industrial output grew 4.5% in July, missing the 4.8% estimate and slowing from June's 5.3% rise. Even crude oil production hit a record high, up 0.8% from a year earlier, though that says more about state energy giants than underlying demand.
A private survey from Tsinghua University professor Li Daokui's team put broad unemployment at 10.2% in July, and Li called the situation "unprecedented."
Official data shows youth unemployment at 14.9% in June, the highest for that month since university students were excluded from the sample. More than half of roughly 24 million long-term unemployed people are between the ages of 16 and 24.
The credit market tells a similar story. Barclays reported that new bank loans in July had their largest monthly decline on record, and household loans, including mortgages, shrank after a brief recovery in June.
The statistics bureau says the country must "accelerate the transition to new growth drivers" and called for reforms and further opening. Spokesperson Fu Linghui cited "shocks" from geopolitical pressure abroad and high domestic temperatures as factors in the slowdown.
The question for investors is whether Beijing steps in to help. Pinpoint Asset Management's president and chief economist, Zhiwei Zhang, sees "further downside risks" and expects the central bank to cut interest rates.
Sheana Yue, senior economist at Oxford Economics, expects a modest pickup in the second half and is keeping the growth forecast at 4.8%. "Accelerated fiscal execution following the July Politburo meeting will probably support activity," she said.
For everyday investors, the lesson is simple. China's slowdown is real, but it is also the reason the government may step in with more support. When the world's second-biggest economy stumbles, the ripple effects reach portfolios everywhere.
Even as economies cool, you can keep building wealth with the free Always Be Buying eBook.
