If you were waiting for a clear top in oil, FGE NexantECA thinks it might have shown up last year. In a new report, Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki and analyst Cuneyt Kazokoglu say crude demand may have peaked in 2025. Their bottom line: "The world will keep consuming more liquids, but not necessarily more crude."
They also note demand eased following this year's Hormuz crisis, which disrupted traffic via the crucial Middle East passage. The timing is notable, arriving about six years after Covid and echoing the interval separating the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks, which led to enduring reductions in oil-fired power generation.
A growing share of global fuel demand is met by biofuels and by hydrocarbons produced by refining natural gas, including ethane. From 2019 to 2025, combined consumption of biofuels and natural gas liquids expanded more quickly than crude. In the US, all growth in oil demand since 2010 has been driven by ethane. Biofuels accounted for 10% of oil demand growth over the past decade, and their share is set to increase as airlines and shipping take up more of them.
Calling a peak in oil is a forecast with consequences for everything else. Market Briefs covers energy markets free every weekday.
Road transport makes up about 45% of global oil use, and that is where substitution is taking hold. Electric vehicles are cutting into gasoline consumption and are starting to affect diesel. As the authors put it, "Just like the 1970s, two big crises six years apart have shocked the oil market in the last decade," and the pattern "creates a growing challenge for refiners, upstream investment and OPEC policy."
If crude demand is flattening, watch the mix, not just the headline number. EV adoption, the role of biofuels in aviation and shipping, and ethane's outsized lift in US demand are the levers shifting the landscape. The authors flag growing strains for refiners, upstream spending and OPEC policy - signals worth tracking as energy markets adjust.
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