Kalshi's inflation markets let users wager on whether September CPI finishes above specific thresholds, and whether CPI tops certain marks at any time in 2026. Results are settled using official Bureau of Labor Statistics data. For September, traders are clustering around a 3.6% annual gain, the same as the FactSet consensus and an increase from August's 3.4%. Big picture, they see inflation as probably having peaked for the year, but not falling quickly.
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Economists tracked by FactSet expect core inflation to hold at 2.4% year over year in September. Traders on Kalshi think core inflation (which strips out food and energy) will stay elevated throughout the rest of 2026. According to Kalshi market prices, they assign only a 6% probability that core inflation will slip under 2.2% this year. The last time annual core inflation sat below that threshold was before the run-up that started in 2021.
Year-over-year inflation previously topped out at 4.2% in May. With odds a shade below one in three for fresh highs in 2026, the Kalshi boards point to price pressures that are tough to shake and a core trend that does not fade quickly. For your day to day budget, that setup means sticker prices may keep feeling stubborn even if the headline number stops making new highs.
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