Kenya doesn't refine its own fuel. It buys all of what it burns from somewhere else, which means a war thousands of miles away ends up at every gas pump in Nairobi.
That's the setup for what Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi told Kenyans on Friday. Tougher times are coming.
In April, Kenya's energy regulator raised fuel prices to record highs after Brent crude jumped above $100 a barrel.
Public transport operators responded the only way they could, by raising fares about 25% on commuters who rely on matatus and buses for the daily school and work runs.
Higher fares feed straight into the price of everything else - groceries, deliveries, the cost of moving goods between cities. That's how an oil shock becomes a grocery shock.
The April inflation print was already Kenya's hottest in two years, with the next one likely to come in hotter still. Mudavadi spelled out the chain - higher transport costs lead to higher factory costs, which lead to layoffs at firms that can't pass the bill on.
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Kenya imports 100% of its refined petroleum, which leaves no domestic cushion when global prices jump.
The trigger this time is the US-Israeli war on Iran, which pushed Brent back above $100 and put the Strait of Hormuz under threat - the shipping lane that carries about a fifth of the world's oil.
Every dollar more on Brent makes the Kenyan shilling weaker against the dollar, since Nairobi has to send more currency out to buy the same amount of fuel.
That mix means hotter inflation, a thinner currency, and a finance minister with fewer good options than most. Kenya's debt service already eats roughly 70% of tax revenue, which leaves almost nothing in the budget for fuel subsidies that could soften the blow.
Mudavadi's warning came alongside a quieter pivot at the central government.
Kenya is in talks with the International Monetary Fund for a new program by July - basically a financial safety net to lean on if the energy bill keeps climbing.
Officials are now racing to lock in fresh support before more pump-price hikes drain reserves further.
The new program would likely come with the same trade-offs every IMF deal carries - cheaper foreign currency in exchange for tighter spending and higher taxes at home. That math is politically painful, but the alternative is a shilling that keeps weakening every week the war drags on.
The June 11 ECB meeting and any shift at the Strait of Hormuz will shape Kenya's next few months more than anything happening in Nairobi.
If oil holds above $100, Kenyan inflation isn't going back below target anytime soon, which means the IMF talks will get tougher, not easier.
The Iran war isn't a foreign news story for Kenyans anymore. It's at the pump.
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