Ghana's price growth nudged higher in September, and the services side of the economy did a lot of the lifting. Government Statistician Alhassan Iddrisu said during a Wednesday briefing that "Inflation has almost halved over the year, but the direction over the last two months is upward."
Services remain the hot spot. On an annual basis, services inflation fell to 8.3% from 8.6% in August, whereas month-on-month it accelerated to 0.8% from 0.4%. Food inflation accelerated to 4% in September from 3% the month before, while non-food inflation slowed to 6.2%, versus 6.8% in August. As Iddrisu put it, "Today, inflation is mainly driven by services and by home-grown items."
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Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had looked for 5.5% inflation, a bit above the actual 5.2%. The firming in services has reinforced the view that the Bank of Ghana will hold fire on rates. The policy rate has stayed at 14% since March, with officials pointing to heightened inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict. That pause interrupted a forceful cutting cycle that lowered rates from a high of 28% a year earlier.
Currency traders noticed. By 12:52 p.m. in Accra, the cedi was down 0.3% at 11.815 per dollar, marking a four-month closing low. REDD Intelligence senior credit analyst Mark Bohlund said, "I see the Bank of Ghana maintaining the policy rate at 14% in November," adding, "September's reading is very much in line with my expectations."
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