Borrowing costs jumped hard this year. Heading into the midterm election, Mortgage News Daily showed the average 30-year fixed above 7.5%, following a drop to 5.99% only days before the war with Iran began. On a roughly $450,000 median-priced home, that reset adds around $300 to the typical monthly payment compared with earlier this year.
Prices have not offered much of a break. Cotality reports home values were 1.8% higher in August versus a year earlier and are close to 60% above where they stood at the start of the pandemic. That combo is sidelining buyers. Existing home sales in August were down from a year ago and ran at an annual pace below 4 million.
Nationally, a larger slice of paychecks is going to shelter. According to Cotality, in 2019 about 24% of the typical U.S. income went to rent and 21% to owning. Today, the shares are roughly 26% to rent and 28% to own, with some coastal metros much higher.
Renters are carrying the heaviest load. Apartment List reports that 52% of renters qualify as cost-burdened, i.e., they devote over 30% of income to housing. That now includes more than 22 million households, a record that swelled as rents jumped from 2019 to 2022.
Pennsylvania still comes in below the national average on costs, yet the trend mirrors the country. In 2019, renting took about 20% of median income in the state and owning about 18%, per Cotality. Today, those figures are around 22% to rent and 24% to own.
A fresh CNBC and SurveyMonkey Quarterly Money Survey, released Oct. 5, underscores how stretched people feel: roughly one in five people with a rent or mortgage say housing consumes 50% or more of their pre-tax income, and another 49% say the share is between one quarter and just under one half. Standard lender guidelines typically suggest putting roughly 28% to 30% of income toward housing. For younger voters, it now ranks first: according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, housing costs have surpassed food prices and even protecting democracy as the top political concern for those ages 18 to 34.
Rates, prices, and insurance are squeezing housing from three directions at once. Market Briefs reads housing data free every weekday.
Allentown and the Lehigh Valley, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, are a clear snapshot of the strain. The district ranks 8th nationwide for potential youth influence on House races, according to Tufts University's CIRCLE Youth Electoral Significance Index, and 19% of residents are young. To rent a typical two-bedroom without crossing the 30% income threshold, a household would need $67,481 a year, equal to a $32.44 hourly housing wage, per the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Census data indicate that 54% of renters there allocate over 30% of their income to rent.
Christopher Borick, a political science professor at Lehigh University, put it plainly: "For that person trying to get an apartment, person moving from an apartment to a starter home, starter home to a larger home, each and every one of those cohorts is reporting that it's a challenge right now, and it's something that is weighing on them in a very important political place." He added, "We've seen a change in the landscape in terms of the cost of housing, access to rental markets, that has really leveraged some of the other broader concerns that we've seen in the area of affordability in a pretty potent way."
Prices keep pressing higher locally, too. Zillow shows Allentown home values are nearly 4% above a year ago. People leaving New York City and Philadelphia have relocated there in search of, ironically, lower housing costs. As Miller notes, "If you look at a market like the Allentown metro, it takes almost 60% of the average renter's household income to consider homeownership for the median home in that particular market, and that's a little bit above the national average."
Politics mirror the pressure. In PA-07, Republican incumbent Ryan Mackenzie faces Democrat Bob Brooks. Mackenzie points to his backing of affordable housing tax credits in the 2025 budget bill and his January co-sponsorship of the Make American Housing Affordable Act to create a primary-home buyer tax credit. The bill has not yet come to a vote.
In neighboring PA-10, Republican incumbent Scott Perry was the only member of Pennsylvania's congressional delegation to oppose the bipartisan affordable housing measure - the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act - which became law in July. "For over 50 years, the federal government has thrown money at housing - which has caused the current housing crisis," he wrote on social media. "The more money we throw at it, the more expensive it gets." Democrat Janelle Stelson supports broadening access to small-dollar home loans and reducing regulation on home construction. At an event in Carlisle, she said, "I will vote to repeal the tariffs [Pennsylvania] Congressman Scott Perry supports on lumber and drywall that are driving up the cost of every home we build."
For many locals, the math is punishing. Jessica Heller, 33, a newlywed getting a price break by renting from a friend in Allentown, said even with a six-figure income, buying feels out of reach. "Unless I'm putting $50,000 down - but like where do you get that money - your mortgage's still going to be like 2, 3, 4 thousand a month," she said.
Blake Fontaine, 26, lives with his mom in Easton while working a six-figure job at ADP. He has savings but balked at prices and says he won't cast a ballot in the upcoming election. "When I started looking at the prices on houses, it completely made me backtrack," he said. Makes no sense."
Zoom out and the pattern is clear: steeper rates, sticky prices, and inflation are reshaping choices about renting, buying, and even voting. That can spill into which policies get passed and how quickly local supply comes online. If you are budgeting for a move, a refi, or a renovation, keep an eye on your local affordability numbers, what your district's candidates are promising, and whether supply near you is loosening or staying tight. That is the part of this story that shows up right in your monthly cash flow.
Affordability is becoming an election issue as much as an economic one. Join Market Briefs free and follow the squeeze.
