Voters are zeroed in on affordability, and Maine's price spikes are standing out even in a midterm year full of cost-of-living angst. Democrat Troy Jackson - who comes from five generations of loggers and previously served as state Senate president - faces Republican Senator Susan Collins on Tuesday night in their first debate, a contest both parties deem pivotal to control of the chamber. With four pickups required to claim the majority, Democrats see Maine as attainable since President Donald Trump has been defeated there three times.
The nomination got chaotic. Progressive oyster farmer Graham Platner bowed out in July amid a string of scandals that featured sexual assault allegations and a tattoo that looked like a Nazi skull-and-bones, which opened the door for Jackson. Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont and progressive standard-bearer, is slated to join Jackson on the trail for two days later this week.
Collins, 73, has nearly three decades in the Senate and a habit of beating the polls, but the electorate looks different than when she last won. Over the five years through June 2025, Maine added nearly 55,000 residents from other US states. Adjusted for population, that ranks among the biggest inflows nationally in a state of roughly 1.4 million.
More people means more demand for a limited housing supply. Since 2021, Maine's home prices have climbed faster than in all but three states as newcomers chase coastline and a slower pace. Rents in greater Portland are rising at more than twice the national rate, per CoStar Group.
The sticker shock is not confined to the coast. In several of the most rural counties, prices have risen even more quickly than around Portland, the Maine Association of Realtors data show. Aroostook County - home to the childhoods of both Collins and Jackson - saw the median sale price reach almost $180,000 this spring, more than 50% higher than in 2021. Buyers are reeling, said Lehrle Kieffer, a Caribou-based agent.
Heating season is adding to the squeeze. Nighttime lows across much of Maine are nearing freezing just as heating oil hit a record, now averaging $5.96 per gallon, about 80% higher than a year ago amid broader inflation tied to the war in Iran. Filling a typical home tank would run around $1,500 at current prices, and most households will need multiple refills to get through winter.
The math is punishing for renters and homeowners alike. Steve Brown, 35, who helps run partnerships for Portland's minor-league soccer team and owns a sports memorabilia shop, shells out $3,600 a month for a one-bedroom downtown. He said that is "way more" than he paid in Atlanta a few years back. He is leaning toward Collins, but admits he has not followed the race closely.
Her new two-bedroom costs $1,250 a month. With wages just over $20 an hour, even that feels like a stretch with grocery and gas prices where they are. "How is somebody supposed to survive?" she asked.
"I don't understand why it's the way it is, and why we're worried about everything else." She said she is ready for Collins to go, arguing the senator could have done more to keep investors from snapping up homes for short-term rentals aimed at vacationers. "Somebody in Congress should be making sure people are being held accountable for that," she said. "At the end of the day, you're screwing the hardworking Maine people."
Others are persuaded by attacks on Jackson's record. "I'm not really particularly thrilled with Susan Collins, but Troy Jackson raised taxes for everything, and now he's like, 'Oh, the state's unaffordable,'" said William Bradford, 62, of Saco. "It's like, dude, you were the people in power and you raised all the taxes!"
Election issues reveal which costs households actually feel most. Market Briefs covers the cost of living free every weekday.
Jackson, 58, leans into his Allagash roots, his thick northern Maine accent and a Boston Red Sox cap that rarely leaves his head. He casts himself as a labor champion from the logging woods who, as a lawmaker, helped deliver paid family and medical leave and ensured public schools provide free breakfast and lunch.
"It's about prioritizing what we do in this country," Jackson said at a late September event in Portland.
Jackson has also hammered Collins over a ProPublica story from September alleging she received campaign contributions in exchange for steering defense contracts. Collins has denied any bribery.
Collins's allies lean on her bipartisan branding. They point out she opposed Trump's tariffs on Canada, an important trading partner for Maine, and pressed the administration to free up heating assistance funds. Only three Senate Republicans opposed last year's One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and she was one of them; the measure included Medicaid cuts, although she backed a procedural step that let it advance. She also joined Democrats on a resolution to curb Trump's war powers in Iran that ultimately failed.
Citing the funding she has steered to local projects, Collins said, "They help communities address critical needs without raising property taxes, which means real savings for the people who live there."
Ads are everywhere. With a $37 million edge in spending tracked by AdImpact, Collins and an allied PAC are unloading spots accusing Jackson of hiking costs such as property taxes during his time in the state Senate. Jackson's team says he helped push through property tax relief for seniors and others.
Voters are torn on who would better handle the squeeze. A New York Times and Siena University survey last month found a 47% to 47% split on cost-of-living competence. That same poll put Collins up 3 points among likely voters, while other recent surveys show a narrow Jackson lead.
A Marist University poll published Tuesday had Jackson ahead 51% to 47%. Only 25% in the Times/Siena poll approved of Trump's handling of cost-of-living issues.
For household budgets, the stakes are straightforward. Higher home prices and rents are reshaping what it costs to live in Maine, and heating oil at $5.96 a gallon means bigger winter bills. However the politics land, those line items are what many voters will be weighing between now and Election Day.
Heating and housing are becoming the economic issues that decide races. Join Market Briefs free and follow the debate.
