Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Tuesday, Shell Chief Executive Wael Sawan said flows from the region have recovered to "close to 80-plus percent of prewar levels," calling it a testament to the resilience of producers that have continued to meet global commitments. It is one of the clearest public reads yet on how exports are bouncing back.
Several major banks and shipping analytics outfits also say movements are edging back toward pre-conflict norms, though the exact numbers are still up for debate. Tracking tankers that pass via the Strait of Hormuz and segments of the Red Sea is difficult when vessels disable their satellite signals, obscuring attempts to count cargoes. With transponders going quiet, traders and analysts are leaning on satellite pictures and on-the-ground intelligence to piece together what is actually moving.
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Sawan said the Iran war has put energy security front and center again. Last week, the Group of Seven nations outlined a contingency to pull up to 100 million barrels of oil out of emergency stockpiles, underscoring how crucial buffers are when supply disruptions occur. Concurrently, producers in the Middle East are assessing new pipeline options to add alternative routes for moving their oil out of the region. "There's a recognition once again that you cannot have national security without energy security," Sawan said. "You cannot have an industrial or an economic strategy that is not underpinned with a solid energy strategy."
Sawan cautioned that the longer the war lasts, the tougher it will be for markets to keep absorbing the shock. Traffic through Hormuz has improved but is not fully back to normal, and the squeeze would look worse without softer Chinese demand and higher production elsewhere. "We have maybe softened the worst impacts of the crisis, but there is only so long that you can continue to do that without further discontinuities emerging," he said.
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