When respondents were prompted to choose if inflation in a year would rise, fall, or stay roughly where it is, most selected higher. About one in three respondents said it would be roughly unchanged, and only 7% anticipated a lower rate. Results looked similar across age groups, genders and regions.
The survey included 1,057 Canadians and was conducted by telephone and online over Sept. 27-29, 2026. It is considered accurate to within approximately three percentage points at a 19-in-20 confidence level. Nik Nanos, the firm's founder and chief data scientist, said the results reflect an "anxious, dour mood," adding, "They realize that Canada only really has so much control over a lot of these big issues."
Inflation expectations shape wage demands and spending before prices even move. Market Briefs covers that feedback loop free every weekday.
When people come to believe inflation will stay elevated, they often act like it will. That can mean negotiating larger pay increases or pulling future purchases forward, which risks keeping prices hot. The Bank of Canada is trying to keep expectations anchored near its 2% target.
Price pressures in Canada picked up after gasoline costs rose in February, tied to the war in Iran that triggered a global oil shock. Headline inflation has hovered near 3% for months, which is the top of the bank's control band. Policymakers are debating whether high fuel costs are spreading into the broader economy and whether the current 2.25% policy rate is restrictive enough to contain inflation.
One month earlier, Governor Tiff Macklem cautioned that failing to act promptly in the face of persistently high inflation could compel the central bank to raise interest rates more, and to do so more rapidly. He also noted that moving too aggressively could sap growth during a period of uncertainty.
If borrowing costs rise, that typically cools consumer spending, which can reduce the chance that pricier energy bleeds into more general inflation.
Traders in overnight swaps currently see about a one in three chance of a rate hike at the Bank of Canada's Oct. 28 meeting, and they are pricing in more than 100 basis points of increases over the next year. On Oct. 19, the bank is set to publish its Business Outlook Survey and Consumer Survey, providing another snapshot of Canadians' inflation views.
For your day to day budget, the takeaway is simple: if inflation expectations stick higher and rates follow, borrowing could get pricier while demand cools. Keeping an eye on the Oct. 19 surveys and the Oct. 28 decision will tell you how quickly that story might unfold.
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