If your home runs on heating oil, the EIA expects your winter bill to climb about one fifth from last year. The agency also sees the underlying fuel getting pricier, with heating oil prices nationwide anticipated to run about 30% above last winter's levels. On the crude side, the EIA now pegs Brent at 105 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter, lifting its view by 14 dollars compared with last month's call.
Diesel has jumped since the US-Iran war began, and diesel prices tend to move in step with heating oil. The surge is tied to tightened supplies, with Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries adding to the squeeze. Data cited in the report draw on Nymex and Bloomberg.
Heating costs are one of the most predictable budget shocks of the year. Market Briefs covers energy prices free every morning.
Only about 3% of U.S. households mainly heat with oil, and most of them are in the Northeast. Even so, weather could blunt some of the pain there, since milder conditions mean less fuel burned. In Maine, the state most reliant on heating oil, the Maine Department of Energy Resources put the average price at 5.96 dollars per gallon on Sept. 28 - almost 80% above the level at the same point last year.
The EIA expects retail diesel to stay above 6 dollars a gallon through October, then trend toward 4.50 dollars next year. It also anticipates a gradual pickup in Middle East output and exports, with additional traffic through the Strait of Hormuz alongside alternate routes and other workarounds. Short term, that points to a pricey few months for heating and transport fuels, with some relief later if supply routes keep opening up.
A twenty percent jump reshapes winter spending for millions. Get the free Market Briefs daily newsletter and plan ahead.
