Kpler expects October deliveries to surge to roughly 465,000 barrels a day, more than double September's 196,000. If all cargoes land on time, that would be the strongest monthly intake since December 2019. Vessel tracking shows at least two tankers are slated to reach India's west coast on Oct. 31, so the final count may slip based on discharge timing.
According to Sumit Ritolia, Kpler's senior manager of modeling, "Venezuelan crude has become an increasingly important part of India's diversification since the start of the year." He projects actual October receipts closer to 350,000 barrels a day because some ships may not unload before month end. Note: October 2026 imports are estimates.
Following nearly a year of inactivity, India began importing from Venezuela again in February, as Washington's sanctions relief granted after former leader Nicolás Maduro was ousted led to greater supply. At the same time, Russian barrels have become more expensive, as Urals loaded in the Baltic have reached a wartime high. Before freight, Venezuela's Merey is priced at a discount while Urals trades at a premium, a spread that helps offset the longer voyage and the extra work required to run Merey's dense, high-sulfur crude.
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Every Venezuelan shipment headed for India names Sikka as the destination - the Reliance port that serves the world's largest refinery complex at Jamnagar. A Reliance spokesperson did not provide an immediate comment when asked. Rising tanker rates could make it harder to keep imports elevated.
And these are not easy barrels. "These barrels are relatively difficult, heavy barrels, and not every Indian refinery can process them continuously or in large proportions," Ritolia said.
Indian refiners trimmed their intake from Russia once a broad US sanctions law raised the risk of additional punitive tariffs. Kpler data indicate that Russia's share of India's crude stood at roughly 35% in September, versus as much as 56% in July. If Venezuelan discounts hold, Jamnagar's flexibility can capture the spread.
If freight keeps climbing or Urals cools off, the mix can swing back. For everyday investors, the thread to pull is simple: watch the balance between discounts, shipping costs, and sanctions risk because it feeds into refinery margins, pump prices, and the earnings of companies tied to this trade.
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