Pain at the pump and broader cost pressures are pinching shoppers, and Cox Automotive now sees only a 0.2% gain in its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index this year rather than the 2% it had penciled in. That would make it a third straight year of largely flat used-car pricing after the pandemic's surge and pullback.
The Manheim index tracks prices on vehicles sold through Manheim U.S. wholesale auctions, a benchmark closely watched because retail prices usually trail changes in wholesale. Historically, the index has posted about a 2.3% year-over-year increase.
Used-car prices are a surprisingly good read on household spending power. Market Briefs covers the consumer economy free every weekday.
From July to September, the index declined 1.95%. In September, the index was 0.6% below its year-ago level - the first instance since March 2025 that it did not surpass its prior-year reading.
Cox said unadjusted wholesale prices in September were 1.2% lower than a year ago and 1.3% below August, reflecting faster depreciation in the third quarter. Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive's chief economist, summed up the backdrop: "As we enter Q4, interest rates are rising, consumer sentiment is falling, and yet a wealth effect from strong and sustained financial-asset growth is providing some offsetting cushion. Many metrics we watch are converging back toward pre-pandemic norms, but the road to get there has been anything but smooth."
Cox also flagged a changing mix: electric vehicle sales and off-lease volume kept climbing, reshaping the used market. During the quarter, values improved for EVs and for smaller, fuel-efficient models, while large trucks and SUVs lagged. Gas prices likely played a role. AAA put the national average in September at $4.33 per gallon, which was 50 cents above the previous September high, a record of $3.83 set in 2023. Robb added, "The first half of the year actually showed more appreciation than usual, even in the face of higher fuel prices. But with the conflict in the Middle East ongoing, diesel prices at record highs, and interest rates climbing rapidly, increasingly worrying both businesses and consumers, wholesale prices have felt the sting."
According to Cox, retail demand for used vehicles remains relatively solid, yet current pricing trends hint that dealers may have hit the ceiling of what consumers will pay at the moment.
Sticker shock is still real, but the edge may be softening. The average listed used-vehicle price was $27,239 in August, while new vehicles averaged more than $50,000. Most Americans buy used because it is more affordable. If wholesale prices keep easing, retail usually follows with a lag, which is worth watching if a car purchase is on your radar.
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