Ghana defaulted on most of its external debt in late 2022, which kicked off a long restructuring process and locked the country out of normal credit markets.
Three years later, the major ratings agencies are racing to upgrade it. Fitch became the latest on Friday.
Fitch raised Ghana's long-term foreign currency rating from B- to B, with a positive outlook signaling that another upgrade could be on the way.
The case is built on three things that don't always show up together in an emerging market.
Public debt has dropped sharply as a share of GDP after the restructuring, and the cedi has held up on the back of stronger exports.
International reserves climbed by $5.4 billion in 2025 to reach $12.3 billion, giving the government a real buffer against external shocks.
Inflation also hit 3.2% in March, the lowest level since 1999.
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Ghana posted a primary fiscal surplus of 2.9% of GDP in 2025, a record level for the country.
Fitch expects another 1.5% surplus in 2026 and 2027 as the government holds the line on spending.
Public debt should fall to about 46% of GDP by 2027, putting it below the average for countries with similar ratings.
That's an unusual outcome for a country that couldn't pay its bondholders less than four years ago, and it signals that the cleanup work has stuck.
GDP growth is expected to average around 5% through 2027, which would put Ghana among the faster-growing economies in West Africa.
April inflation ticked up for the first time since December 2024, according to the country's Government Statistician.
Global supply pressure on food and fuel is creeping back in, even though the broader picture still looks clean.
Fitch held the positive outlook anyway, signaling Ghana could climb again if fiscal discipline holds through the rest of 2026.
Moody's and S&P have both nudged Ghana up in recent months, which puts all three major agencies in roughly the same place on the country.
A defaulting government doesn't usually get to clean up its books and grow at 5% at the same time, and Ghana is doing both.
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