Exports are steady, data is messy
Saudi crude loadings are hanging around wartime highs in October, according to preliminary tracking, despite strikes on oil infrastructure and increased reports of Iranian attacks on tankers near Hormuz. The headline numbers diverge: Vortexa sees 6.5 million barrels a day to date versus 6.6 million for all of last month, Tankertrackers.com puts flows at 6.99 million, while Kpler estimates 5.4 million and down from September.
Those gaps line up with a broader trend: Persian Gulf exports are edging back toward pre-conflict levels, but the counting has gotten harder as more vessels are cutting their satellite signals to mask positions and reduce exposure to strikes. That makes it tougher for the market to read real supply from a region that anchors global pricing.
Routes reopen, Red Sea liftings rise
Saudi shipments picked up after flows through Hormuz were stepped up when the East West pipeline was shut following an attack last month.
Kpler, by contrast, shows lower volumes from both coasts.
Those customers had been taking barrels from a Mediterranean port in Egypt that can be reached by shuttle tankers and a pipeline connection, avoiding a Red Sea transit amid heightened Houthi threats.
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In Europe, buyers whose term loadings were previously canceled have been told they can bid for spot cargoes this month and next to cover shortfalls, Bloomberg reported.
Region-wide flows and price signals
The Gulf's broader flows are firming. Kuwait, which depends entirely on Hormuz, is shipping roughly at prewar levels. Iraq's exports last month were nearing pre-conflict volumes. The United Arab Emirates has lifted production to record highs, according to the International Energy Agency.
Domestic refineries typically run about 3 million barrels a day, not counting the 400,000 barrel a day Jazan plant, which remains shut following Houthi attacks.
Stronger supply has taken some heat out of physical pricing.
What it means for your portfolio
The near-term read: barrels are still moving, even as security risks persist and data clarity wobbles. The kingdom's higher oil income matters as recent strikes hit airports and oil sites, disrupted air travel, and effectively shut Riyadh's financial district, putting a brighter spotlight on the economy. For positioning, watch the export tallies, the Oman Dubai differential, and any signs that route flexibility - Red Sea versus Hormuz - tightens again. Saudi Aramco declined to comment, and the energy ministry did not respond.
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