What happened in September
Fresh Commerce Department figures show the merchandise shortfall increased 2.1% from August to $134.9 billion. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the gap to shrink to $130.2 billion. These are nominal numbers, not adjusted for inflation.
Inbound shipments of goods increased 2.4% while outbound shipments rose 2.6%. Alongside the trade data, retail inventories ticked up 0.3% and wholesale inventories rose 0.6%. Earlier this month, separate reports showed September import prices up 1.1% and export prices up 2.2%.
Why capital goods are the story
Companies keep stocking data centers with equipment made abroad. Overseas purchases of capital goods - including computers and accessories, semiconductors, and telecommunications gear connected to the AI buildout - rose 7.5% to set a new record. That category remains the main force worsening the goods balance over the past year.
Stephen Stanley of Santander Capital Markets, the firm's chief US economist, said, "So much of the hardware that the tech companies need is coming from overseas, driving a massive widening in the trade gap." The shortfall associated with capital goods has grown by $54.3 billion compared with a year earlier, more than accounting for the whole rise in the overall goods deficit over that span.
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Consumer-goods imports rose 3.1% in September - the largest monthly gain in four months - but were still 12% below their level a year earlier. Shipments abroad of consumer goods increased 6.5%, and sales overseas of food, feeds and beverages climbed 12.8%. Offsetting them to a degree was a 1.6% drop in industrial supplies exports, a grouping that includes petroleum products and the volatile nonmonetary gold.
What this means for your portfolio
These trade and inventory inputs feed into the government's calculation of third quarter GDP. Before this latest goods report, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimated that net exports would trim Q3 growth by 2.86 percentage points, after subtracting 1.10 percentage points in Q2.
Oliver Allen, Pantheon Macroeconomics' senior US economist, said, "The massive drag on GDP growth from net trade in Q3 likely will be partly offset by a very big jump in equipment investment, and particularly computer equipment investment." He added that some of the import surge will probably land in inventories, though the offset looks modest.
Looking ahead, a fuller trade update that adds services and inflation-adjusted goods data arrives on Nov. 4. Why it matters: an AI-fueled investment cycle is lifting capital spending but also pulling in more foreign hardware, a mix that can pressure net trade even as it supports domestic investment.
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