Saudi crude exports snapped back this month even as clashes with Iran-backed militants intensified. Kpler measures September flows at 6.0 million barrels a day, the best reading in the roughly seven months since the Iran war began, and roughly in line with the kingdom's 2025 monthly average. That resurgence came despite a shutdown of the East-West pipeline after it was damaged by a drone launched from Iraq.
Through the conflict, the East-West line has been a safety valve for the market, letting Riyadh move oil from eastern producing regions to Yanbu on the Red Sea and sidestep the Strait of Hormuz while Iran targeted tankers in those waters. When that route was taken offline, Brent rallied to almost $110 a barrel, then cooled as traders judged the disruption was proving less severe than first feared. With the U.S. military establishing a shipping lane along Oman's coast, Saudi Arabia has steered more barrels back through Hormuz. Other Gulf exporters have been using this path for months, though it remains risky as Iran keeps attacking tankers transiting the strait.
As of Wednesday, Kpler estimates indicate an average over seven days of 13.2 million bpd transiting Hormuz, versus roughly 17 million bpd prior to the Iran war disrupting traffic. "The ramp-up from the Mideast Gulf is a consequence of the pipeline outage, but it likely also signals a greater confidence in using the Strait of Hormuz given rising traffic," said Matt Smith, Kpler's director of commodity research. Reuters, citing industry sources, said the East-West pipeline restarted earlier this week at reduced rates, with throughput now on the rise.
No public confirmation of a restart has been issued by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser told Japan's Nikkei on Thursday that "temporary interruptions" to oil infrastructure last "usually for days, not weeks or months ... on every occasion." He did not provide a specific update on the pipeline.
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If you care about gas prices and travel costs, watch three levers: Saudi export volumes, traffic through Hormuz, and any official word on the East-West line. Those are setting the tone for energy costs right now.
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