Home values barely inched higher, up 0.4% from a year earlier in the quarter to June 30 after a 4.5% gain in Q1 2026. It's the weakest gain in seven years, last seen in early 2019, ahead of Covid, when the central bank put in place a new measurement approach. The gap by geography was sharp: Metro Manila posted a 5.2% increase, while prices outside the capital fell 2.7% year over year, the first ever annual decline for those areas.
A slower economy, fading speculative buying, and pressure on household budgets stemming from the Iran war's knock-on effects and a government corruption scandal have taken the heat out of the market. Developers are prioritizing end users over investors, said Joey Roi Bondoc, research director at Colliers International Philippines. "It's no longer speculative demand that's driving prices," Bondoc said.
Large unsold inventories are still a headwind. "It's a buyer's market now," said Raffy Mendoza, an analyst at Maybank Securities, pointing to aggressive discounts to move stock.
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The central bank noted that residential real estate lending moved in step with property price patterns across regions. Credit growth was stronger for condominium units, particularly in major urban centers, while loans for houses fell, signaling softer lending activity outside the capital.
Put this alongside GDP disappointing at 2.3% and you get a market leaning toward real occupants, with financing tilting to condos in key cities and weaker lending tied to houses elsewhere. If your exposure touches property or consumer credit, the split between urban condo borrowing and activity outside the capital is the pressure point to watch.
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