Speaking alongside the United Nations General Assembly, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi set a one week clock: "If certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will be open at the end of seven days, and talks will be restarted." He said the asks are "nothing new," pointing to what was "already in the Islamabad MOU, which was signed by the U.S. president." That memorandum was the June ceasefire arrangement between the U.S. and Iran, which unraveled in early July. Earlier, the Trump administration made clear it would not return to the June deal.
By Friday, crude prices edged lower: Brent futures for November delivery were off 1% to $105.56 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate for November delivery was down 1.8% to $92.94.
The conflict also loomed over the U.S.-China summit in Washington. Chinese President Xi Jinping is on a three day state visit, meeting with Trump on trade, artificial intelligence, Taiwan and Iran. After indirect U.S.-Iran talks picked back up on the UN sidelines in New York this week, Trump sought Beijing's help to push Tehran toward a settlement.
David Perdue, the U.S. ambassador to China, told CNBC's Squawk Box that Trump has made U.S. aims on Iran "very clear" to Beijing. "Believe me, believe me, much of my personal time and much of President Trump's time over the last month has been that very topic," he said. "We made it very clear to them weeks ago that, you know, any help that they would give Iran, whether it would be direct or indirect, whether it would be intelligence or parts or military equipment, was totally unacceptable," he continued. "Trump made that very clear again yesterday."
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Pezeshkian told Fox News, when asked if the seven month war could end by year end, "It's America that must choose whether it wants to end this or not." He also emphasized distance from Houthi operations, saying "the Houthis are responsible for their own actions" and that Iran is "not at war with Saudi Arabia." The Houthis, he said, "have their own issues."
On Friday morning, Saudi authorities said the Houthis launched dozens of missiles and drones at targets in the kingdom and reported intercepting six ballistic missiles. Emergency alerts went out in Mecca, Jeddah and Yanbu. Separately, Saudi Arabia's Grand Mufti urged troops to be ready "to lay down their lives" so they can battle the Houthis until the group is removed from power.
Tensions are showing up on the water. Preliminary ship-tracking cited by Reuters showed just nine vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, well below normal peacetime traffic for a waterway that typically carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply.
That stalemate is visible in thinner Hormuz traffic and in twitchy crude prices. If indirect talks, Xi's visit and pressure on Tehran change the calculus, oil flows could reset fast, with knock-ons for energy stocks, fuel costs and commodity funds. Keep an eye on Brent near $105.56 and WTI around $92.94, and whether vessel counts climb from nine transits.
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