What launched and how it works
Kalshi switched on perpetual futures tied to stock prices on Nov. 5, offering exposure to moves in the shares without actually owning them. Unlike standard futures, these contracts have no expiration date.
The rollout covers 50 large stocks and follows earlier Kalshi launches linked to commodities and crypto tokens. Because perps give leveraged exposure to a security's current price without any right to the underlying asset, their payoff pattern looks similar to total return swaps - a common over the counter instrument used by hedge funds and a core holding of leveraged ETFs. Before perps arrived, those ETFs were a straightforward way for retail traders to amplify stock bets.
Traders can dial in their leverage with a slider. In one example, $100 of cash provides $458.81 of buying power. Kalshi offers up to 4.6 times leverage on Nvidia positions and 3.5 times on Micron and SpaceX.
Where the early volume showed up
Interest arrived quickly. During a 24-hour span on Thursday, trading in Kalshi's Nvidia perps topped $100 million amid volatility linked to chief executive Jensen Huang's removal. On Nov. 9, Micron turnover crossed $100 million, and SpaceX hit as much as $88 million within one day.
One of the largest public Nvidia positions last week belonged to @WillyChampagne, showing an unrealized gain of $60,000 since launch. Behind it is William Smythe, who works as an investment adviser and performs as a house music DJ in Miami, and he uses a personal Kalshi account "as a hobby." He said liquidity for equity perps surpasses what he's seen in the exchange's oil contracts. While profiles may be set to public, bigger players and market makers likely keep theirs private.
Context helps: on Nov. 9, roughly $78 billion of Nvidia shares traded, and listed options on the stock carried about $125 billion in notional value.
The crypto playbook and a CME counteroffer
Perps have long been a staple on offshore crypto exchanges, giving crypto intermediaries a head start as the products move onshore in the US. Serving as president of the brokerage Ripple Prime, Noel Kimmel - whose firm has been clearing these contracts since 2020 - said more than two-thirds of activity on the four biggest offshore crypto venues comes from perps. Kimmel said the Iran war was an inflection point for non crypto perps because clients wanted to trade commodities over the weekend when traditional futures were closed. "You've seen an explosion in volume," he said, referring to clients trading perps tied to equities, crude, and gold. "This is not a fad in my view, and I think you're going to see continued proliferation and increase in pickup across different types of asset managers."
In late July, CME Group rolled out single-stock futures providing over six-times leverage on more than 50 names, including Nvidia, SpaceX and Micron. On Thursday, CME's Nvidia futures reached their second-highest level ever, the exchange said.
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The court fight over what perps are
Perpetual futures' legal home in the US is now before the courts in a case pitting CME Group against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the agency that oversees US futures markets. Cboe Global Markets and Citadel Securities have likewise brought suit against the CFTC, contending that equity perps belong on securities exchanges. The dispute highlights longstanding splits between the SEC and CFTC even as products and trading tech converge.
Gary DeWaal, a retired derivatives attorney, said the line between swaps and futures has been eroding since the 1980s. With Cboe offering 10 year dated continuous futures and Kalshi listing equity perps, he framed the issue as one of form versus substance.
The CFTC has been working for years on how to classify perps as futures rather than swaps as offshore trading grew from crypto into oil and now equities. Futures can bring benefits like lighter reporting and more favorable tax treatment. CME's lawsuit contends perps are swaps subject to tougher Dodd Frank rules. Speaking at the Futures Industry Association Expo in Chicago on Nov. 4, CME CEO Terry Duffy said, "They are not a future," in reference to perps.
Kalshi's chief risk officer Udesh Jha addressed concerns about excess risk in an Oct. 28 presentation. "We are governed by CFTC standards," he said. "The CFTC regime has so many gaps for investor protection for securities products," Rob Hocking, Cboe's global head of derivatives, said. "We're just in the Wild West."
Why it matters for your money
For portfolios, perps add another tool: no expiry, direct exposure to a stock's price, and adjustable leverage. Interest is real across retail and hedge funds, yet volumes are tiny next to trading in the underlying shares and listed options.
The bottom line: classification will shape costs and outcomes. Watch leverage limits, liquidity, and the litigation track. A shift toward a swaps label would change the rulebook, from reporting to taxes.
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