JPMorgan calls another record year for U.S. high-grade bonds in 2027, powered by AI buildout

What JPMorgan is projecting

JPMorgan strategists including Nathaniel Rosenbaum say another record year is lining up, with AI infrastructure spending and elevated refinancing needs doing the heavy lifting. They peg 2027 U.S. investment-grade sales at $2.1 trillion, just above this year's expected $2 trillion. The strategists added that years at or above $2 trillion could increasingly become typical as the market gets larger.

Where the supply comes from

Tech and media borrowers are expected to drive net new issuance, together raising $612 billion, close to 30% of total high-grade supply. That bundle includes $225 billion from hyperscalers and $225 billion linked to data centers and computing chip financing. As Rosenbaum put it, "Supply will remain unusually concentrated in sectors funding the AI infrastructure buildout which increases the sensitivity of our aggregate forecast to the AI capex cycle."

Risks and rival forecasts

JPMorgan projects a 52% year-over-year decline in M&A bond supply after a historic 2026, yet argues that revived "animal spirits" may lift both deal activity and total issuance beyond their base case. The team also points to permitting and development hurdles in multiple pivotal states after Democratic midterm gains, which could push 2028 data center projects back and temper tech borrowing. Issuance could slip further if hyperscalers continue steering more debt into foreign currencies rather than dollars. Other banks split on 2027: TD Securities sees $2.4 trillion, while Bank of America projects $1.9 trillion.

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Why it matters for your portfolio

The forecast centers credit opportunity squarely in AI infrastructure. If JPMorgan is right, tech and media will remain the primary funding magnets, shaping where new paper comes to market and where credit exposure accumulates. The bottom line: watch the AI capex cycle and hyperscaler funding choices to gauge where the richest new-issue pipeline may appear.

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