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Treasuries Mixed As Markets Brace for Data, Earnings and Midterms

Kalbir Talwar
Published Nov 2, 2026
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Summary:
  • Monday's moves: the 10-year Treasury yield eased a bit - just over 4 basis points - to 4.884%; the 30-year fell by in excess of 5 basis points to 5.255%; and the 2-year edged higher by less than a basis point to 4.585%.
  • Traders tracked a steep drop in oil prices after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump would like the Iranian war settled "diplomatically," while the earlier oil-yield tandem faded in October as attention shifted to AI and Big Tech.
  • A heavy slate includes September JOLTS Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, productivity and jobless claims Thursday, October nonfarm payrolls Friday, Treasury auction-size details Wednesday, and Tuesday's midterm election results.

What moved yields on Monday

The curve split again to start the week. The 10-year eased to 4.884% and the 30-year to 5.255%, while the 2-year ticked up to 4.585%. A basis point equals 0.01%, and when bond prices rise, yields fall.

A separate market snapshot showed the U.S. 10 Year at 4.906% down 0.023, the 30 Year at 5.272% down 0.037, and the 2 Year at 4.602% up 0.021. Shorter bills were quoted as follows: 1 Month 3.971% down 0.005, 1 Year 4.392% up 0.038, 3 Month 4.105% up 0.025, and 6 Month 4.285% up 0.031.

Drivers and the calendar

Traders also watched oil slide after Rubio said Trump would prefer to resolve the Iranian war "diplomatically." Earlier this year, oil rallies often coincided with higher bond yields, but that pattern eased in October as investor focus moved toward AI and Big Tech.

Friday's equity rout, led by technology names, sent money toward Treasurys as a haven. Tech stays in the spotlight with Apple and Qualcomm reporting next. On the macro front, September JOLTS lands Tuesday, ADP is due Wednesday, productivity and weekly jobless claims arrive Thursday, and October nonfarm payrolls cap the week on Friday.

Smart investors welcome new tools that can sharpen their decision making. We're hosting our first ever investor livestream on 11/17 to show you how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro, hosted by Briefs Finance CEO Jaspreet Singh. Save your seat.

The Treasury will outline planned note and bond auction sizes on Wednesday. Results from Tuesday's midterms are also being watched for their implications for Congress's spending priorities.

What it means for your portfolio

Rates and risk appetite are getting fresh catalysts daily. The mix of mega-cap tech earnings, labor data, and Treasury issuance could keep duration and equity beta swinging in tandem. Keep an eye on how long yields respond to the data cadence and how tech earnings color the safe-haven bid.

Learning how to use better analysis tools can pay off over time. On 11/17, our CEO Jaspreet Singh goes live for our first ever investor livestream on how to use ChatGPT and Claude to invest like a pro. Register to join him.

Disclosure

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