Food prices never sit still. Predicting where they will go 18 months from now is a challenge for anyone who grows, sells, or buys food. But the numbers come with a twist - the method behind them changed just a few years ago.
The ERS publishes data and forecasts for annual changes in food prices. These forecasts reach up to 18 months ahead and come out on the 25th of each month, unless that day falls on a weekend or holiday. The agency uses two main data sources from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks what shoppers pay for food at the store. The Producer Price Index (PPI) tracks what businesses pay for food ingredients and supplies.
Farmers, processors, wholesalers, consumers, and policymakers all watch these numbers. The forecasts give them signals about what to expect.
Get your free investing masterclass bonus when you join Market Briefs, our free daily newsletter
The ERS revises its forecasting approach for the Food Price Outlook on a regular basis. Because of the change, the ERS keeps two sets of records. Archived forecasts from the old method are available for comparison. For the Consumer Price Index, archived monthly forecasts go back to 2003.
For the Producer Price Index, they go back to 2014. Users can also download historical data series that have been recalculated using the current method. The archived forecast series displays the exact predictions and confidence ranges that would have been generated each month using the data then available and today's methodology.
Both the CPI and PPI tables received new data in the June 25, 2026 update.
The new method incorporates more recent data sources and adjusts for inflation trends more accurately, giving users a clearer picture of price direction. The ERS has noted that the change aligns the forecasts with current economic modeling standards, though it does warn that back‑to‑back comparisons across the switch require careful interpretation because the two methods yield slightly different baseline projections.
These forecasts are closely watched by economists, investors, and agricultural businesses because food price inflation directly impacts household budgets and profit margins. The shift in methodology reflects the need for more accurate predictions in a volatile economic environment, where supply chain disruptions and climate events can rapidly alter costs.
Users who want to compare current predictions with past ones can use the archived files. The 2003 and 2014 start dates give a long track record to study.
Subscribe to Market Briefs, our free daily newsletter, and claim your bonus investing masterclass
