"I don't think anything will happen in July, unless the situation changes dramatically," he said. And for the longer term, he added: "As I see things now, it's perhaps good to stay where we are for some time."
He highlighted two factors to watch. First, will European companies pass on falling energy costs to consumers? Stournaras noted, "Very often in Europe, when oil prices go up, this is immediately passed on. "But when there's a decline, there isn't the same kind of reduction. That's because of lack of competition, or in countries like Greece, because of excess demand"."
Second, a surge in AI‑related spending is pushing up prices for imported electronics from places such as Korea and Taiwan, according to Stournaras.
The ECB's next rate decision will come in July, but for now the odds of another hike have shrunk. The central bank will likely wait and see how the economy reacts to lower energy prices and slower inflation before moving again.
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