South Africa's farm trade had a strong quarter: export values rose 10% from the same period last year to $4.1 billion, a new high for any second quarter. Wandile Sihlobo, who serves as the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa's chief economist, said the overall gain reflected both higher volumes and better prices. Shipments to the US were down compared with a year ago, but they surged 56% from the prior quarter after the effective tariff rate dropped to 12.5% from 30%.
Two decades of steady expansion in agriculture are paying off. A bigger citrus industry and moves into more fruit and nut varieties have added to South Africa's corn exports. Better operations at the Cape Town port also helped move product. Sales to African neighbors were a major pillar too, with shipments within the continent accounting for 40% of the total.
On Monday, Sihlobo wrote in a note, "South Africa has had a solid start to 2026." He also urged staying focused: "Still, in the current environment of heightened geo-economic tensions, South Africa's export-oriented agricultural sector must focus on maintaining its existing export markets and expanding into new ones." There is a weather wrinkle too. While this year's corn harvest is a record, the next season's crops could be smaller if the anticipated El Niño brings the usual drier conditions to Southern Africa.
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Confidence is holding up: in a separate Monday statement, the chamber said its agribusiness sentiment index rose eight points, to 53, over the three months ended September. But going forward, there remains uncertainty." Translation for your wallet: strong exports and firmer sentiment are tailwinds for South Africa's farm economy, but weather and geopolitics are the wild cards to watch.
