The breakaway started after the US Treasury said on August 19 it would double its liquidity-support buybacks in longer maturities. Each operation increased from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, with the larger purchases slated to begin September 9.
Bitcoin then rallied 22.4% for the week, its strongest run since March 2024. Gold advanced around 5%.
Bitwise Investments finds Bitcoin has historically been less correlated to 10-year Treasury yields than gold. In practical terms, when yields rise and Treasury prices fall, gold tends to twitch more than Bitcoin.
Even with Bitcoin's lighter link to yields, its connection to gold has tightened. Bitwise reports that, as of August 31, 2026, the 90-day co-movement of Bitcoin and gold was above 0.5, the highest level observed since 2020.
Grayscale noted on August 27 that earlier in 2026 this same correlation hovered near zero. The snap from near-zero to above 0.5 points to shared macro drivers, namely rising long-term yields and growing concern about fiscal sustainability.
All of this is happening as US gross federal debt broke past $40 trillion in August 2026, reaching approximately $40.13 trillion by mid-month.
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Bitwise argues gold's tighter tie to yields reflects how large fixed-income portfolios use it. Allocation models often anchor gold positions to real yield expectations, so when yields climb, those models tend to cut gold almost automatically.
Bitcoin is not embedded in those same frameworks yet. Holders span a wider mix, from retail traders to corporate treasuries, sovereign wealth allocators, and crypto native funds; a sizable share is building positions instead of rotating purely because the yield curve moves.
Supply matters too. Gold mining can adjust, albeit slowly, to price moves. Bitcoin's issuance schedule is fixed in code and unresponsive to the Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department.
Here is the allocator puzzle: if Bitcoin and gold are being pushed by the same macro worries, but Bitcoin moves harder while being less sensitive to yields, the usual playbooks may underweight crypto. On days when Treasuries sold off, Bitcoin routinely beat gold, a tendency that showed up again in the rally following the buyback expansion.
For traders, bouts of Treasury weakness tied to fiscal headlines or debt ceiling jitters have often preceded outsized Bitcoin moves. The 22.4% weekly jump after the buyback expansion is the latest instance in that broader pattern Bitwise highlights.
One caveat: these relationships shift. If the 90-day Bitcoin-gold correlation - above 0.5 on August 31, 2026 - were to drift back near zero, the case for diversification would shift, as would the effect on your allocation.
