Thursday's report showed new unemployment applications eased to 194,000 for the week through Oct. 17, coming in below the Bloomberg median estimate of 200,000. That level sits among the four lowest readings in data going back to 1969, with recent weeks holding near 1960s-era lows.
Unadjusted filings dropped by over 19,000 from the previous week. The biggest declines were recorded in Ohio, Tennessee and California.
The number of people remaining on benefits climbed to 1.73 million in the prior week, up 25,000 and the highest in six weeks. Even so, the four-week moving average of new claims, which smooths out weekly noise, dropped to 197,750, the lowest since 2022.
Claims have stayed historically low even as companies manage higher costs, including energy. eBay Inc. and Kroger Co. have announced sizable job cuts, but there is no indication of broad-based layoffs.
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"Jobless claims continued to signal limited layoffs in the survey week for October payrolls. Recent announcements suggest AI is beginning to reduce staffing needs in some industries, but broader evidence of AI-driven layoffs remains limited," wrote Bloomberg Economics' Eliza Winger.
For portfolios, the takeaway is straightforward: initial claims are historically low while the count of ongoing beneficiaries ticked up to a six-week high. Investors often track these series as inputs ahead of monthly payrolls.
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