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Treasuries rally as stocks sell off and oil jumps

Published Oct 22, 2026
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Summary:
  • Treasury yields fell as investors moved to havens during a stock slide tied to worries about the AI trade and higher oil.
  • The 10-year yield dropped 15 basis points to 4.996% - its first move below 5% since Sept. 23 - while the 2-year slipped 14 basis points to 4.69% and the 30-year slipped by 10 basis points, landing at 5.32%.
  • Oil rose more than 2%, with West Texas Intermediate above $99 and Brent over $111, after a New York Times report said the U.S. and Israel are weighing a restart of strikes on Iran in a "short but intensive" operation following next month's midterms elections.

What moved markets today

Stocks sagged as concern about the artificial intelligence trade met a run-up in crude, and money shifted into Treasuries. Yields fell quickly in that safety bid, and remember this basics note: when bond prices climb, yields drop.

The 10-year Treasury - a key marker for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards - fell 15 basis points to 4.996%, dipping under 5% for the first time since Sept. 23. The 2-year, more sensitive to near-term Fed decisions, eased 14 basis points to 4.69%, and the 30-year fell by 10 basis points, reaching 5.32%. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.

Oil jump and the geopolitical backdrop

Crude pushed higher, with West Texas Intermediate up more than 2% to trade above $99 early, and Brent - the global benchmark - gaining more than 2% to top $111.

Sentiment cooled as CNBC aired remarks from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who said demand for neoclouds is "off the charts," and added that capital remains in short supply. Escalating tensions in the Middle East also weighed, and the New York Times reported, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that Washington and Israel are weighing a restart of strikes on Iran in a "short but intensive" operation after next month's midterms elections.

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Market data snapshot

A data readout showed the U.S. 10 Year Treasury at 4.967%, down 0.179. Other entries: U.S. 1 Month at 3.962% (-0.021), U.S. 1 Year at 4.361% (-0.138), U.S. 2 Year at 4.646% (-0.177), U.S. 30 Year at 5.304% (-0.133), U.S. 3 Month at 4.128% (-0.041), and U.S. 6 Month at 4.279% (-0.088).

The bottom line: what it means for your portfolio

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