A stronger-than-forecast third quarter prompted Elevance to raise its full-year profit forecast and increase its 2026 outlook by $2 per share. Management also set a fresh adjusted earnings baseline of $26.75 a share for this year, excluding certain items, and said next year's adjusted earnings will be at least 12% higher.
At that pace, next year's profit would exceed the consensus analyst forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The company, which combines a major insurer with a health services arm, detailed the updates in a Wednesday presentation, and the tone echoes broader sector optimism after UnitedHealth raised its outlook earlier this month.
Adjusted profit in the quarter got a $1.85 per share lift from higher valuations of private companies in which Elevance holds stakes, a boost Chief Financial Officer Mark Kaye said mostly came from one unnamed company. That tailwind also fed into the higher full-year guidance. Spending on medical care took a smaller bite out of premium revenue than Wall Street expected, further helping results.
Although the overall ACA marketplace is contracting, Kaye noted that individual ACA membership remained "approximately flat" at 1.3 million, aided by a higher share of enrollees completing premium payments. As Kaye put it, "We saw more consumers choosing affordable bronze plans in the market rather than choosing to leave the market itself." Bronze plans are the lowest-cost tier under the ACA.
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Health insurers have wrestled with rising medical costs in recent years, prompting price increases, benefit trims, and exits from weaker markets to protect margins. Elevance's total membership has been trending lower and now stands at 44.9 million.
Even so, guidance stayed upbeat despite Medicaid headwinds. The program is projected to see nearly $1 trillion in funding cuts over the next decade, and Elevance has said it will phase out its Medicaid plans in Washington, DC, and Louisiana. The company expects to lose money in Medicaid this year, a pattern it said some competitors share.
Elevance named Jeff Park as president of Carelon, effective December 1. Park previously was the president of Waltz Health, a company in the drug supply chain.
The stock added 1.7% in early Wednesday trading in New York and, through Tuesday's close, has risen more than 25% this year, outpacing the S&P 500. The bottom line for investors: Elevance is leaning on lower-than-expected medical costs, steadier ACA membership, and private-asset gains to reset profit run rates higher into next year and 2026.
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