What JPMorgan said
JPMorgan strategists, led by Mislav Matejka, argue the rally still has legs despite higher global bond yields and lingering inflation nerves. They point to better profit revisions and a supportive backdrop that can actually make valuations look more attractive when prices wobble.
The market picture
Even with yields hitting very elevated levels, equities have remained resilient. The S&P 500 is up around 13%, and the MSCI All-Country World Index is higher by about 14%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 has gained 9.6% this year, trailing the US benchmark but still pacing for a fourth consecutive annual increase. Meanwhile, manufacturing indicators across the US and the euro area sit near four-year highs, adding some real-economy support to the rally narrative.
Policy and leadership
The team thinks even a moderate step-up in central bank tightening is unlikely to knock the equity backdrop off course unless inflation expectations shift in a big way. They also flag a possible changing of the guard in global leadership by year end, writing that "We stay with the view that non-US equities have a good chance to outperform the US for the second year in a row."
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Track record and takeaway
Matejka called in June for stocks to push to new highs in the second half. Since then, the MSCI ACWI has risen 2.4% and is hovering near a record. For your wallet, the through-line is simple enough: earnings momentum and healthier global activity are the pillars behind this view, so short-term shakiness is being framed as opportunity rather than a reason to head for the exits.
