Published the morning of Oct. 23, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern and updated at 9:44 a.m., the latest read shows September retail activity tracking higher, up an estimated 0.7% from August. That follows a 1.2% gain in August, compared with a 1.3% increase economists surveyed by Bloomberg had penciled in for that month.
August's rise came after a 0.8% fall in July, the first monthly decline since December 2025. Importantly, sales volumes also advanced 1.2% in August, indicating the pickup was not just price effects.
All nine retail subsectors advanced in August. New car dealers led the way, up 1.5% after a 1.4% drop the month before. Strip out autos and sales still climbed 1.2%, helped by food and beverage retailers posting their first increase in three months.
Regionally, sales grew in six provinces, with Ontario up 2.2%. In Toronto, spending rebounded 4.0% after a 4.7% slide in July. Alberta saw the steepest pullback, as sales slipped 0.1%.
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Some economists have warned the August bounce could prove short lived after trade tensions with the US ratcheted higher in September. Even so, Canada appeared to power past a tariff-related slump in the second quarter, while gross domestic product was flat in July and August.
This retail snapshot lands just before the Bank of Canada meets next week, and it is the final read officials will see ahead of the decision. Several traders and economists switched their calls in recent days and are now looking for a hike. Pricing in overnight swaps - derivatives used to wager on policy rates - implied better than an 80% probability of an increase at next week's meeting, and that did not budge after the data. "Today's report reinforces our view that Canadian households retain the capacity to spend, supported by accumulated wealth and resilient income growth," said Maria Solovieva, an economist with TD Bank.
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