Oil caught a bid on Thursday as supply worries stacked up. Brent futures climbed 3.8% to $104.04 a barrel, while U.S. WTI advanced 3.4% to $91.28. On delayed screens, ICE Brent Crude for Dec′26 showed 103.72, up 3.52 or 3.51%, last noted at 5:41 PM BST. WTI Crude for Nov′26 printed 91.00, up 2.72 or 3.08%, with a last mark at 12:41 PM EDT.
That report from NBC News, based on anonymous sources, indicated President Donald Trump, together with his national security team, was considering restarting strikes in the coming weeks.
Security risks flared again near a critical chokepoint. Attacks over the last week have hit nine tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the tentative recovery in shipments through the corridor. Kpler data show about 9.5 million barrels per day exited the strait in the week ended Tuesday, around 30% below typical volumes before the Iran war.
Even with pipeline workarounds, Middle East crude shipments totaled 16.4 million bpd, a level that is nearly back to prewar conditions.
Geopolitics and weather can move oil in the same direction at the same time. Market Briefs covers the energy market free every morning.
Storm prep added to the squeeze. In the Gulf of Mexico, producers have shut in about 500,000 bpd - roughly a quarter of offshore output - with Hurricane Isaias tracking toward the shorelines of Alabama, Mississippi and the Florida panhandle.
Tensions also escalated across the region. According to state-owned Al Arabiya, on Tuesday and Wednesday, missiles were launched by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen at airfields in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's capital, and in the city of Abha, leaving three dead and 36 wounded. A Saudi military spokesperson said the kingdom intercepted another round of ballistic missiles on Thursday aimed at Riyadh and Khamis Mushait.
"While flows from the region have largely normalized, the need for US navy escorts, increased costs and logistical frictions and constant risk of being attacked call into question the longer-term feasibility of the flows," said Ryan McKay, TD Securities' director of commodity strategy. "This ultimately warrants a sticky risk premium to remain in pricing," he wrote in a Thursday note to clients.
Put simply, prices are reflecting two things at once: shipping risks around Hormuz and weather-related supply losses in the Gulf. That combo can keep a risk premium embedded in crude, which is the most direct way these headlines show up in energy funds, oil-sensitive sectors, and even transportation costs.
Supply disruptions reach the pump within a couple of weeks. Get the free Market Briefs daily newsletter and follow it.
