On stage with Republican candidates in San Antonio, Trump told supporters he's not interested in an agreement with Tehran. He said, "I think the deal isn't really something that I want to do, but they're willing to offer us anything to stop." He also noted that Steve Witkoff - named the U.S. special envoy for the Middle East - has been overseeing the negotiations and is "doing very well." Earlier in the week, Trump said Washington's biggest issue in negotiations was not knowing who was in charge in Iran. Tehran pushed back, with foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeli Baghaei saying "the problem is actually the opposite," pointing to "contradictory positions and mixed messaging from U.S. officials."
Reports of possible strikes have intensified. NBC News reported that the president, along with his national security aides, has considered restarting major U.S. operations soon, citing a U.S. official and a second person knowledgeable about the talks. Axios said any renewed fighting might feature "massive bombing" aimed at Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets, and suggested such actions might sway how the midterm elections turn out.
Trump's approval has slid to a record low amid frustration over high living costs tied to jumpy gasoline and diesel prices. He also said he was considering a diesel export ban but thought it could hurt gasoline.
Diplomatic signals move oil faster than most economic data does. Market Briefs covers that link free every weekday.
Kpler data shows crude prices remain lofty even while Middle East exports climb back toward pre-war norms. Taken together, crude exports from the Gulf - excluding Iran - and additional shipments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were roughly back at pre-conflict marks, totaling 18.5 million barrels per day (Mbd). "Normalisation no longer needs to wait for a deal," observed Matt Wright, Kpler's lead freight analyst, who anticipates "slower, uneven normalisation" if fighting continues, with traffic improving through operational workarounds rather than a diplomatic breakthrough.
Politics, potential military moves and fuel costs are colliding again. If strikes are seen as more likely while flows keep grinding higher, the tug of war between supply recovery and risk premiums could keep energy prices jumpy. That volatility feeds straight into households via gas stations and heating bills, and it can swing sentiment across everything from airlines to trucking to consumer spending.
Talk of a deal, or the lack of it, is priced into every barrel. Join Market Briefs free and follow the signals.
