French year-ahead power futures broke past €100 per megawatt-hour, rising roughly 7% this week alongside a jump in gas prices, according to EEX data. That puts prices back to territory last seen in December 2023, when the crisis set off by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine was starting to ease. Fresh worries about potential US strikes on Iran have added fuel to broader energy markets.
France's big nuclear fleet usually buffers it, but Europe's grids move in lockstep and winter is getting close, so longer-dated French contracts are catching the shockwaves. Nuclear output is not tied to the Middle East, yet heat-related reactor constraints from summer stretched into September. RTE figures show September's nuclear generation was the weakest for that month since 2022, when widespread corrosion problems hit the fleet. To fill the gap, gas plants stepped up, with gas-fired production about three times the level of the same month a year earlier. On Thursday, nuclear availability was around 65%, with available capacity almost 6 gigawatts below the same point last year, based on Bloomberg's calculations from RTE data.
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With cost-of-living anger simmering, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said late Wednesday he would keep energy bills in check this winter. He urged the state-owned utility, Electricite de France SA, to boost electricity output to help restrain customer bills, and announced that France will draw on diesel reserves to reduce pump prices. Beyond France, Germany's year-ahead power futures also climbed on Thursday, touching €138.35 per megawatt-hour.
Forward electricity prices are a marker for what suppliers expect to pay, not a direct readout of your next bill. Still, the mix right now is clear: tighter nuclear availability, pricier gas doing more of the work, and geopolitical risk keeping markets jumpy. If tariffs edge up, that is the backdrop, even as the government pushes to keep costs contained.
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