Both leaders laid out bold roadmaps. Ogino set an 80,000 mark for the Nikkei 225 this year and said he expects 88,000 toward the end of 2027. Okuda put the index near 75,000 by December and above 80,000 by the close of 2027.
For reference, the gauge finished Thursday at 69,042.11. Their confidence leans on a nearly four-year run where Japanese shares are hovering near records, supported by AI-related investment, governance reforms and the return of inflation. That upswing has lifted their companies as well: Nomura and Daiwa reported all-time-high earnings for the last fiscal year.
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Ogino called the yen's recent rebound from extreme weakness the product of joint intervention, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urging the Bank of Japan to lift rates, and the BOJ's September hike. He framed rising rates as a "positive development" that signals growth. Looking ahead, he sees the currency around 160 per dollar through the period and the Nikkei reaching 88,000 toward the end of 2027.
Okuda said overseas investors are still keen on Japan and that tighter policy has not bitten much so far. His forecast puts the currency near 156 per dollar by the end of the year, followed by a slow firming as geopolitical tensions subside. He also cautioned that the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine may drag on, which could drive energy costs higher and snarl supply chains.
Both executives flagged that growing backlash to AI initiatives and the build-out of server facilities across countries such as the US could sap investment in the space. Okuda was blunt that a swing in AI sentiment would be the key risk. If that retreat occurs, Ogino's concern about rapid shifts in sentiment could materialize, with volatile price moves running ahead of conditions in the actual economy. Translation for your wallet: the rally's leadership is concentrated in AI, so a mood change there could make Japanese equities choppier even if the broader backdrop still looks solid.
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